SkyWatch [ 2025.06.16 ] : Atlantic Trident 25

Hello Intrepid SkyRider,

Welcome to the 13th edition of SkyWatch, a periodic flight operations review from AVIAR LABS.

Last night, I observed an extraordinary surge of heavy-lift military aircraft departing the continental U.S. - a movement that quickly ignited speculation across social media, especially given rising tensions in the Middle East. As it turns out, these flights are tied to a major NATO operation: Atlantic Trident 25.

This week’s SkyWatch dives deep into the exercise, one of NATO’s most strategically significant in recent years. Hosted by Finland and involving the U.S., U.K., and France, Atlantic Trident 25 is a showcase of high-end multinational airpower, ISR integration, and forward deployment across Europe’s northern flank. With global conflicts simmering, the timing and scale of this drill demand attention.

Let’s get started.

The images above show the migration of KC-135R aircraft - most using RCH callsigns - between June 15 and midday June 16, 2025. Over 100 flights and 400 total flight hours suggest large-scale movement in preparation for the Atlantic Trident 25 exercise. The leading animation highlights KC-135R activity during the start of the migration the evening of the 15th.

SkyWatch Target : [ Atlantic Trident 25 ]

Overview: NATO Integration and Finnish Host Leadership

Atlantic Trident 25, running from June 16–27, 2025, is a premier multinational air combat exercise hosted by Finland, bringing together the United States, United Kingdom, France, and the Finnish Air Force. Its mission is to integrate 4th and 5th-generation fighter operations under realistic wartime scenarios, fostering interoperability and combat readiness. With over 40 aircraft and 1,000 personnel, the event marks a pivotal moment for Finland, now a NATO member, hosting for the first time and testing its capacity to receive and operate alongside allies—especially critical given its 1,300 km shared border with Russia.

Aircraft by Nation: A Multinational Combat Ensemble

Each nation contributes distinct airpower elements. Finland fields multiple squadrons of F/A-18 Hornets supported by NH90 helicopters, gaining vital experience ahead of F-35 integration. The U.S. brings F-35A stealth fighters, F-15E Strike Eagles, and KC-135 tankers, deploying forward to Finnish bases like Pirkkala. RAF Typhoons contribute air superiority and counter-air capabilities. France deploys Rafale omnirole fighters, an E-3F AWACS, an A330 MRTT tanker, and an A400M transport aircraft. These platforms collectively enable advanced missions involving stealth, air refueling, strike coordination, and battlespace management. Draken International adds adversary Red Air aircraft, simulating enemy tactics to elevate realism.

Together, the combined air forces execute high-end scenarios integrating stealth, electronic warfare, aerial refueling, and multinational coordination. These complex operations exemplify NATO’s effort to function as a cohesive, rapidly deployable force in contested airspace.

Naval and Space Integration: Strategic Synergy

While airpower is central, Atlantic Trident 25 unfolds amid simultaneous NATO operations across domains. Notably, Exercise BALTOPS 25 runs concurrently in the Baltic Sea with 40 ships and 25 aircraft. This parallel effort amplifies NATO’s message of maritime-air integration. Finland’s coastline and strategic position make such coordination crucial, especially in scenarios involving air defense of maritime convoys.

In the space and ISR domain, NATO deployed an RQ-4D Phoenix drone to Finland for the first time. Operating from Pirkkala, the high-altitude UAV provides persistent surveillance, complementing manned ISR assets and satellite coverage. Strategic reconnaissance, GPS-dependence, and electronic warfare resilience are baked into the exercise. Russia has previously jammed GPS during Nordic drills, and NATO is prepared to counter such interference. The integration of overhead intelligence platforms into tactical operations demonstrates NATO’s multidomain maturity.

Timeline and Planning: From Concept to Crisis Readiness

Atlantic Trident is part of a biennial tradition dating back to 2017. With Finland joining NATO in 2023, this year’s event evolved into a quadrilateral effort. Planning began over a year ago, focusing on integrating Finland’s unique infrastructure and experience with Agile Combat Employment (ACE). All four main Finnish air bases are in use, and bare-base drills have emphasized interoperability at the technician level.

In the final weeks, NATO expanded the scope with the inclusion of the Phoenix ISR drone. Planners also adjusted scenarios to account for emerging crises. Most notably, days before the exercise began, Israel launched strikes on Iran, triggering a regional war. NATO opted to proceed with Atlantic Trident despite the Middle East conflict, reinforcing the message that the alliance remains vigilant on all fronts.

Geopolitical Timing: A Signal to Adversaries

The timing of Atlantic Trident sends strategic messages. To Russia, it affirms that NATO’s northern flank is secure even amid global distractions. Finland’s participation and the forward deployment of U.S., UK, and French jets near Russia’s Kola Peninsula signal that NATO is ready and watching.

Simultaneously, the exercise indirectly communicates with Iran. NATO’s continuation of high-level training during the Israel-Iran conflict illustrates Western capacity to maintain force posture globally. Should the Middle East conflict escalate further, units training in Finland are already at peak readiness, offering flexibility for rapid redeployment. While the U.S. hasn’t intervened directly in the Iran-Israel war, its forces remain active, visible, and coordinated.

Historical Context: Echoes and Lessons

Military exercises have historically shaped posture and sometimes preceded escalation. In 1983, NATO’s Able Archer nearly provoked Soviet miscalculation. In contrast, Russia used exercises like Allied Resolve 2022 as covers for invasion. Atlantic Trident’s transparency and defensive design aim to avoid such misperceptions.

The precedent of Trident Juncture 2018 - NATO’s largest Cold War-style exercise -demonstrated how large drills can reinvigorate deterrence. Likewise, Juniper Oak 23, a U.S.-Israel exercise, arguably prefigured Israel’s 2025 strikes on Iran. These examples underscore how exercises build capability and intent over time. Atlantic Trident, through its integrated posture and regional focus, may shape deterrence dynamics in Northern Europe for years to come.

Strategic Repositioning: Realignment or Routine?

Could Atlantic Trident mask the repositioning of forces? In a narrow sense, yes: the forward movement of aircraft, tankers, and ISR assets trains for potential rapid response scenarios. Finland gains practical experience hosting NATO units; the U.S., UK, and France deepen logistical familiarity. Some equipment or munitions might remain in Europe post-exercise, boosting readiness. But the event is transparent, and forces are expected to rotate home, not remain indefinitely.

Conversely, exercises like this offer a quiet opportunity for intelligence collection. ISR aircraft, drones, and analysts can observe Russian patterns in real time. Phoenix flights likely swept wide arcs across Northern Russia’s air defense zones. Even without a nefarious motive, such training yields long-term strategic dividends.

Conclusion: Beyond the Drill

Atlantic Trident 25 illustrates NATO’s resolve, agility, and unity amid a volatile global landscape. While it is first and foremost a training event, its significance lies in the timing, the participants, and the broader signal it sends. As Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine and Israel battles Iran, NATO is showing it can maintain deterrence in Europe without taking its eyes off other theaters.

By blending airpower with ISR, logistics, and multinational command, Atlantic Trident 25 sets a new bar for alliance preparedness. It confirms Finland’s rise as a frontline NATO player and demonstrates that strategic foresight and full-spectrum readiness are alive and well across the alliance. As these jets return to base at month’s end, they leave behind a stronger, more integrated defense network, one with eyes on the horizon and engines ready to roar.

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That concludes this week's SkyWatch Report. Thanks for reading!

Til next time, stay frosty and keep your eyes to the skies.

Best regards,

Goa

Creator of SkyGlass